As the holiday season approaches, the buzz surrounding Disney’s highly anticipated sequel, Moana 2, is growing louder. According to early tracking data released on Friday, the film is projected to rake in over $100 million during its initial five-day opening, which encompasses the Thanksgiving holiday week. Specifically, estimates suggest that the film will earn between $75 million and $82 million during the Friday-to-Sunday period. These promising forecasts stand in stark contrast to Disney’s recent struggles in the animated film sector, particularly since the release of Frozen 2 in 2019, which generated $125 million — a benchmark yet to be surpassed by any film released during Thanksgiving.
The first Moana film, which debuted in 2016, set a foundation with an opening of $82 million over five days and eventually secured a domestic total of $248.7 million. If current predictions hold, Moana 2 is on track not just to replicate but to potentially surpass these figures, marking a much-needed victory for Disney as it reclaims a spot at the Thanksgiving box office table.
Industry experts are closely monitoring audience demographics, particularly the overwhelming interest from women under 25 years old. This demographic seems pivotal for Moana 2’s success, with some insiders drawing parallels to the ‘Frozen crowd,’ hinting at a shared appeal among younger female viewers. Interestingly, while early audience tracking reveals lower engagement among male viewers, history suggests that this won’t necessarily hinder the film’s performance. Take, for example, Inside Out 2, whose eventual success dispelled initial doubts about male audience interest.
Furthermore, the marketing campaign for Moana 2 appears to be striking a chord, having produced the most-watched trailer for an animated Disney movie, garnering an astonishing 178 million views within the first 24 hours of its release. This level of engagement surpasses well-known predecessors, including Inside Out 2 and Frozen 2, which is testament to the sequel’s strong positioning in the market.
Directed by a dynamic trio including Dave Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller, Moana 2 promises to carry forward the essence of the original. The involvement of talented musicians, such as Grammy winners Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear, along with notable contributions from Opetaia Foa’i and Mark Mancina, adds another layer of excitement. The return of beloved characters, voiced by Auli’i Cravalho and Dwayne Johnson, anchors the film in familiar territory, further enhancing its appeal.
As the holiday release draws nearer, it’s important to note that the film will contend with other big titles, including Wicked: Part One and Gladiator II, for audience attention and IMAX screen availability. Disney’s strategy to dominate the Thanksgiving market hinges not just on the strength of Moana 2, but also on the overall appeal of these competing films.
Moana 2 stands to become a significant player in the Thanksgiving box office landscape. Current predictions not only signal a prosperous opening weekend but may also reflect a broader resurgence of Disney’s animated offerings at a time when the studio has faced mounting challenges. Indeed, if Moana 2 meets its projected figures, it could mark the beginning of a new chapter for Disney, restoring its reputation for holiday blockbusters while captivating audiences both young and old. As the countdown to the release begins, all eyes will be on this much-anticipated sequel and the potential triumph it represents for Disney.