As the holiday season begins to unfold, the box office is bursting with excitement, with Disney’s highly anticipated sequel, Moana 2, making a remarkable start. The film kicked off its previews at 2 PM, generating upwards of $12 million on its opening day, a record-breaking performance for a Tuesday before Thanksgiving. This early window success dwarfs the previous record holder, Ralph Breaks the Internet, which made only $3.8 million in its equivalent preview periods in 2018. With projections indicating a potential five-day Thanksgiving weekend gross of $125 to $135 million, it’s clear that audiences are eager to embrace the continuation of Moana’s adventure despite the mixed critical reception, as reflected by a 69% freshness rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
While Moana 2 is drawing in viewers with its nostalgia and the star-studded cast featuring Dwayne Johnson and Auli’i Cravalho, critics have offered a tempered appraisal compared to the overwhelmingly positive reviews of Disney’s Frozen II, which scored 77% certified fresh. Nevertheless, critic Dessi Gomez describes the sequel as making a “satisfying splash,” opening the doors for enthusiastic family viewership during the Thanksgiving holidays. One key factor buoying box office numbers is the school calendar; with nearly half of K-12 schools and a significant portion of college students enjoying their break, families are flocking to theaters in larger numbers.
Not to be overlooked is Universal’s Wicked, which is also thriving in this competitive environment. Despite its extended runtime of 2 hours and 40 minutes—compared to Moana 2’s 100 minutes—the musical adaptation is projected to collect between $16 million and $17 million, marking an impressive 8% increase from its already strong Monday gross. Wicked stands out as a box office titan, accumulating a total estimated gross of around $145.2 million. This burgeoning success suggests that audiences are still very much drawn to well-produced adaptations of beloved Broadway musicals. If projections hold, Wicked is on track to surpass The Greatest Showman’s domestic earnings.
The financial success of both films indicates a resilient market for adaptations of Broadway musicals. Wicked is expected to surpass several iconic titles, solidifying its draw among a broad audience that includes both seasoned fans of theater and newcomers alike. Even with formidable competition, films like Gladiator II, showing healthy growth as evidenced by a potential near $7 million take, suggest that older demographics—especially women—are being drawn into theaters, further diversifying audience profiles for major releases.
As Thanksgiving approaches, the box office is witnessing a remarkable showdown between family-friendly animated films and acclaimed stage adaptations, highlighting a trend toward revitalized interest in theatrical productions. As blockbuster films seek to captivate audiences this holiday season, it will be fascinating to see how these dynamics unfold in the coming weeks. The Thanksgiving box office is not just about numbers; it represents a cultural appetite for storytelling that transcends medium and generation.