October 2023 has been a mixed bag for the film industry, struggling to maintain momentum as evidenced by dismal ticket sales. Warner Bros.’ latest release, Joker: Folie à Deux, has not performed as anticipated, and the overall ticket sales for the month are down a staggering 43% compared to the same period last year. This significant drop has left industry insiders and fans alike wondering what happened to the excitement that typically accompanies this month—a time often seen as a prelude to Oscar contenders and big-budget releases. The box office seems to be yearning for a boost, and many are looking toward the third installment of the Venom saga to fill that void.
Scheduled for release on October 25, Venom: The Last Dance is anticipated to open with around $70 million. While this figure may seem underwhelming compared to its predecessors—2018’s Venom, which opened to $80.2 million, and 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which debuted with approximately $90 million—it holds significance in the current climate of the box office downturn. Following the disappointing performance of Joker 2, a $70 million opening would be welcomed, as it would represent one of the few bright spots in what’s been an otherwise gloomy October. Notably, if these projections hold true, it would also make Venom 3 the second-best opening for a comic book film in 2024, trailing only behind the much-anticipated Deadpool and Wolverine crossover.
Current tracking data reveals that young men under 25 are exhibiting the strongest connection to Venom: The Last Dance, showcasing organic interest and a willingness to engage with the film. Interestingly, men over 25 are also showing notable interest. This demographic insight is crucial for the marketing strategies employed by Sony, as knowing your audience can significantly impact a film’s performance. Moreover, Kelly Marcel’s transition from writer to director for this installment presents an intriguing aspect, as fans will now experience her vision for the franchise firsthand.
The competition for ticket sales is fierce, with Focus Features’ Conclave—a critically acclaimed film—set to debut on the same day. Although Conclave boasts impressive reviews and a 91% freshness rating on Rotten Tomatoes, it is unlikely to pull audiences away from the franchise character that has captured so much attention over the years. Despite concerns about the October box office, Comscore suggests a slight improvement compared to last year’s figures, with the current month’s first half netting $209.7 million—a 4% increase over the same timeframe in 2022.
While October might appear sluggish and riddled with obstacles, the introduction of Venom: The Last Dance holds potential to shift the narrative. Should it meet projections, it may not only salvage October’s box office landscape but also reinvigorate interest in comic book films leading into the end of the year. As we await its release, the spotlight remains firmly on Venom as the film industry hopes for a triumphant return to the silver screen.